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Oil tops $100 as Hormuz tensions rattle markets after US-Iran talks fail
Kpler estimates the world could be facing a temporary shortfall of about eight million barrels per day as shipping bottlenecks and precautionary rerouting tighten physical availability
- PUBLISHED: Mon 13 Apr 2026, 9:40 PM
Global oil prices surged back above $100 a barrel after the collapse of US-Iran negotiations reignited fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how quickly geopolitical risks in the Gulf can reshape energy markets and inflation expectations worldwide.
The move renewed concerns about the security of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping corridor that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies and remains a lifeline for major exporters including the UAE and Saudi Arabia as well as key importers across Asia and Europe.
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Shipping activity through the strait has already slowed sharply. Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that only 17 vessels transited the waterway on a recent day compared with about 130 daily transits before the conflict began, highlighting the scale of disruption confronting global supply chains.
Energy intelligence firm Kpler estimates the world could be facing a temporary shortfall of about eight million barrels per day as shipping bottlenecks and precautionary rerouting tighten physical availability. The squeeze has pushed spot crude prices significantly above futures benchmarks, signalling immediate supply stress on the ground rather than purely speculative trading pressure.
Despite the tensions, Iranian exports have not halted entirely. Windward data shows more than 58 million barrels have left Kharg Island since early March, with over 90 per cent heading to China, illustrating how trade flows are being redirected rather than completely interrupted.
Analysts remain divided over whether the latest price spike will evolve into a sustained energy shock or remain a short-term geopolitical premium.
Standard Chartered expects the rally to be temporary under its base-case scenario. Manpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer for Africa, Middle East and Europe, said the duration of elevated prices would determine the extent of the global economic fallout.
“There is a big difference in terms of the impact on global economic growth and inflation risks of an oil price rise that lasts a few weeks versus one that lasts a few months,” Gill said, adding that the bank expects the current spike to last roughly four to six weeks.
However, some strategists warn that risks remain tilted to the upside if maritime disruptions intensify.
Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, said investors are watching closely to determine whether the latest escalation represents a negotiating tactic or the beginning of a prolonged supply shock.
“If this disruption persists, the inflationary consequences will be significant and will quickly move back to the top of the agenda for investors,” he said.
Higher crude prices are already complicating expectations for global monetary easing. Central banks that had been preparing to cut interest rates may now face renewed inflation risks, particularly if energy costs remain elevated into the second quarter.
The International Energy Agency has also warned that supply pressures could intensify in the coming weeks if shipping disruptions continue, increasing the likelihood of extended volatility across energy markets.
Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank, said markets are reacting to the breakdown in diplomacy but are not yet pricing a worst-case escalation scenario.
“The talks failed, so the peace dividend is under pressure. But diplomacy has not fully collapsed, which means markets are not yet back to pricing the most extreme version of the conflict,” she said.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz extends far beyond crude oil. David Satterfield, former US Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, noted that about 30 per cent of global aluminium and helium shipments, up to half of fertiliser feedstocks and roughly 17 per cent of polymers also pass through the corridor.
Meanwhile, Saul Kavonic, analyst at MST Marquee, said prices remain relatively contained given the scale of disruption because traders still expect shipments to resume.
“If that doesn’t happen, oil prices will head higher,” he warned.
For Gulf producers including the UAE, oil above $100 strengthens fiscal revenues and investment capacity, reinforcing economic resilience at a time of heightened regional uncertainty. However, prolonged instability around Hormuz would also increase tanker insurance costs, shipping delays and logistical risks for exporters.
With the ceasefire deadline approaching on April 22 and no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf.
For now, investors appear to be pricing a temporary disruption rather than a structural energy crisis — but the trajectory of oil markets will depend heavily on whether maritime flows stabilise or tensions escalate further in the weeks ahead.
