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Middle East oil output to normalise in weeks as UAE hits record high
UAE exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May levels, Reuters reported, citing data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG.
- PUBLISHED: Sun 5 Jul 2026, 11:09 AM UPDATED: Sun 5 Jul 2026, 11:11 AM
Oil production levels in the Middle East region are quickly recovering and could be expected to return to ‘near-normalised’ levels in the coming weeks, according to credit rating agency Fitch Ratings.
Excluding the UAE and Qatar, Fitch said it expects non-OPEC+ production to increase by 1.7 million barrels per day. The UAE’s oil exports recovered substantially, exporting around 4 mmbpd in the first half of June, of which half crossed through the Strait of Hormuz.
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UAE exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May levels, Reuters reported, citing data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG.
The country has also been quick to re-route critical oil supplies through alternative ports, such as the Khor Fakkan and Fujairah ports to bypass the Strait’s closure during the onset of the regional war.
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The new pipeline is already 50 per cent complete and will bring total bypass pipeline capacity to 3.3 mmbpd by mid-2027.
“We continue to forecast a return to oversupply before September 2026, driven by the strong recovery in OPEC volumes and production growth outside OPEC, and assuming sustained normalised flows through Hormuz,” the agency said on Friday.
Oil prices have also reacted quickly following the interim ceasefire agreement signed between the United States and Iran, as the ratings agency anticipated, which left Brent crude prices plummeting to $72 per barrel from the $102-195 highs in April and May.
70 per cent vessel traffic recovery
Fitch noted that daily vessel transits and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing, although crossings will remain volatile in the short term. “We expect volumes to normalise within weeks, but uncertainty remains about how soon these volumes become sustained rather than sporadic,” the report said.
As of Friday, when the Fitch Ratings wire was published, vessel traffic through the waterway recovered to 70 per cent of pre-war levels by June 25. Both Iran and the US accused the other of violating the ceasefire after renewed attacks in the Strait as well as in neighbouring Bahrain, which caused vessels numbers to subsequently dip. However, this was temporary, and the numbers quickly increased again, Fitch said.
Total global observed oil inventories of 7.9 billion barrels in May are in line with historical norms of 2021-2024, the International Agency noted. The decline from levels reported at the beginning of 2026 was in line with the announced release of 400 million barrels, of which 63 per cent had been released to the market by mid-June, mostly from government stocks.
Hind Aldah is a business reporter based in Sharjah. In her spare time, you will find her playing classical guitar, painting amateur oil paintings, or crocheting the same old scarf that leads nowhere.