Indian rupee, perched near record low, to remain under pressure

A few traders reckoned that it was possible that the Reserve Bank of India may have intervened in NDF market to defend the rupee

By Reuters

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Published: Wed 20 Sep 2023, 9:54 AM

Last updated: Thu 12 Oct 2023, 2:38 PM

The Indian rupee, hovering near a record low, is expected to remain under pressure amid focus on crude oil prices and the US Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 22.683-22.694 to the UAE dirham compared with 22.688 in the previous session.


The local currency is within a whisker of the lifetime low of 22.694.

"You can make out from the price action that we are headed lower (on the rupee)", a forex dealer at a bank said.


"Let's see how swiftly (the record low) is taken out," another trader said, adding that the rupee is likely to hold a negative tone through the session.

A few traders reckoned that it was possible that the Reserve Bank of India may have intervened in NDF market to defend the rupee.

Brent crude dropped below $94 in Asia, off the fresh year-to-date high it made on Tuesday of $95.96. The dollar index was down a tad at 105.08 and Asian currencies were mostly in a narrow range ahead of the Fed decision.

The Fed on Wednesday is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged with futures assigning a near zero percent probability of a rate hike.

What investors will be on the lookout for will be the central bank's interest rate projections for 2023 and 2024.

"We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bps hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%," BofA Global Research said in a note.

"Perhaps the most important forecast is the 2024 median, which in our view will shift up by 25bps to 4.875%, reflecting just 75bp of cuts next year."

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