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Bitcoin slumps to $58,000 as Citi slashes forecast
Citigroup lowers its 12-month outlook for Bitcoin and ether, saying weakening investor appetite, negative exchange-traded fund flows and a lack of progress on US digital asset legislation
- PUBLISHED: Wed 1 Jul 2026, 6:19 PM
Bitcoin fell almost one per cent to $59,829 on Wednesday evening, as market volatility, investor hype around big expected IPOs and persistent ETF outflows continue to plague cryptocurrency markets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen by about 20 per cent to under $60,000 in June, its worst monthly performance since the same month in 2022, CoinDesk data showed.
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As the market outlook gets more bearish, Citigroup slashed its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether, saying weakening investor appetite, negative exchange-traded fund flows and a lack of progress on US digital asset legislation, all of which have hurt the outlook for the two largest cryptocurrencies.
The brokerage, in a note on Tuesday, lowered its target for bitcoin to $82,000 from $112,000 and trimmed its ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175, Reuters reported.
Bitcoin has more than halved in value from an all-time high of $126,223.18 that it recorded in October last year. Ether was last at $1,585.63, its lowest since April 2025, Reuters data showed.
Citi’s bear-case scenario, which assumes recessionary macroeconomic conditions and continued ETF outflows, values bitcoin at $53,000 and ether at $1,094 over the next year.
Citi said its revision was driven by its decision to cut its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption to zero from $10 billion. “ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently,” it said, adding that bitcoin ETF flows were down about $3.3 billion so far this year. The brokerage expects broader investor adoption to remain on hold until a new catalyst emerges.
Slow progress on legislation
It also said that slow progress on US crypto legislation and concerns over potential bitcoin selling by digital asset treasury companies have hit investor sentiment, with the weakness coinciding with a rotation into AI-related assets.
The crypto community’s conviction in the ‘hold on for dear life’ (HODL) mantra has been crumbling as prices remain under pressure, according to Carsten Menke, Head Next Generation Research, Julius Baer. “Fears of selling were stoked by Michael Saylor’s digital asset treasury company, in particular following its recent announcement to raise cash. Forced selling by such companies is an overhang for digital assets more broadly, but it is not what the markets are pricing at the moment. Ongoing outflows from spot exchange-traded products instead signal a spreading dissatisfaction with Bitcoin’s performance as well as concerns about rising US interest rates and a stronger US dollar. Top-down factors are still in the driving seat and volatility is set to stay elevated,” Menke said.
Juilus Baer notes that bitcoin holders are currently facing a ‘prisoner’s dilemma’. “Everyone would be better off not selling. At the same time, anyone selling first would be better off, considering that the others might pursue the same strategy. Forced selling by treasury companies is an overhang not only for Bitcoin but digital assets more broadly,” Menke said.
Forecast revisions like Citi’s reflect how quickly market sentiment can shift, particularly in an asset class that’s still heavily influenced by macro outlook and institutional flows, said Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research. “We’ve seen Bitcoin go through similar periods of consolidation before, especially after strong rallies, as markets pause and wait for the next catalyst,” he added.
Alexis Sirkia, Founder and Chairman, Yellow, said it makes sense to review based on “where we are on the calendar and the events that happened since the start of the year”. “A report of a 60 per cent increase on today’s price on any asset by a reputable analyst such as the team at Citi is incredibly positive and it shows we are dealing with a robust asset and demonstrates the intrinsic value of BTC,” he added.
Raj Kamal, Founder and CEO TransFi, believes Bitcoin is going lower, and stuck in a whirlpool of relevance. “Big jumps in prices of gold and silver in the last one or two years, have questioned Bitcoin’s narrative as ‘Digital Gold’ and selling by Michael Saylor adds to the woes. “In my view, Bitcoin is pulling down ETH and SOL that have far more use cases in digital transactions. I would think that ETH and SOL will break out of the Bitcoin umbrella and come back, but Bitcoin has a tough road ahead,” he added.
Second half outlook
Markets enter the second half of 2026 with institutional forecasts pointing to continued strength in US equities and gold. Consensus S&P 500 year-end targets are generally clustered around 7,500-8,000, supported by resilient corporate earnings and continued AI investment.
Bitcoin enters H2 consolidating around the $59,000-61,000 range following recent weakness, with spot ETF outflows exceeding $4 billion since mid-May. “Despite weaker flows, futures open interest remains elevated, funding rates have turned positive, options positioning remains constructive, and onchain data continues to show whale accumulation alongside low exchange reserves. Institutional participation continues through ETFs and corporate treasury allocations, while Ethereum remains more sensitive to ecosystem activity and capital flows,” Lee said.
That said, it is not what the markets are pricing at the moment. Ongoing outflows from spot exchange-traded products instead signal a spreading dissatisfaction with Bitcoin’s performance among investors as well as concerns about rising US interest rates and a stronger US dollar. Top-down factors thus still seem in the driving seat for crypto, not least as bottom-up factors that could lastingly lift prices are missing. “For now, volatility is set to stay elevated as flows from investors rather than fundamental developments of the blockchain remain the dominant drivers of price performance,” Menke said.
Reacting to Citi’s price outlook, Lee doesn’t think that a single price target changes the broader trajectory. “We see institutional participation continues to expand, tokenisation is accelerating, and the infrastructure supporting digital assets is far more mature than it was in previous cycles. While near-term volatility is likely to remain, I think the more important story is that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly integrated into the global financial system. That structural shift matters far more than any single forecast,” he added.
Liquidity conditions are expected to remain the primary driver of cross-asset performance through H2. Markets will be watching Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, inflation and ETF flows for signs of changing risk appetite. For digital assets, renewed institutional inflows and improving liquidity conditions could provide support, while elevated yields and persistent ETF outflows remain the key risks to monitor.
Associate Editor Somshankar Bandyopadhyay brings more than three decades of experience to the KT newsroom. Currently, he manages the news production of the business section, ensuring that the top economic and business news of the day reaches its readers.