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Corporate gains, foreign buying aid market sentiments

KARACHI — As widely speculated the KSE 100-share index last week briefly breached through the psychological barrier of 14,000 points but failed to sustain it on late selling in some of the leading base shares.

However, investor mood reflects that the future war of wits between the bulls and bears is expected to be fought above the index level of 14,000 points as strong presence of foreign buying and higher corporate profits would not allow them to sit on the sidelines.

After having touched its career-best level so far at 14,029 the KSE 100-share index finally ended around 13985.89 points as compared to 13,772.46 points a week earlier, a fresh gain of 213.43 points. What is more important is that unlike previous bull-run, buying support did not outflow to other sectors but remained very much in the market, although it changed its portfolio investment startegy.

Low-priced shares, notably in the cement and telecom sectors being traded at an attractively lower levels and having potential of capital gains had now assumed the role of actives. The Lal Masjid operation, however, briefly intercepted the market's upward drive as investors sold in panic fearing law and order situation in other parts of the country as a reaction to Islamabad casualities.

But the reaction billed as an overdue technical correction proved short-lived as bulls fought back on the strength of positive corporate background news and higher earnings reports.

A higher dividend at the rate of Rs6.20 per unit by the National Investment Trust (NIT), did provide much needed relief to the shaky investors but the army action on Lal Masjid again reversed the situation.

Earlier, the KSE 100-share index breached through two consecutive psychological barriers and analysts said there appears to be no near-term end to the existing bull-run after the target of 14,000 points was hit. At one stage, it was only seven points below its hereto considered an elusive goal of 14,000 at 13,951.00 but at the last moment bulls gave a breathing space to the massively battered bears postponed it for another session or two.

"The index level of 14,000 points is expected to be crossed any session but what next is the question being debated in the relevant quarters", analyst Ashraf Zakaria said adding "it may rise further but after having gone through a technical correction being in a highly overbought position".

Although index heavy weights, notably OGDC, MCB, National Bank, PTCL, Lucky Cement and some other leading shares were behind the current sustained run-up, incredible role played by the second-tiers stocks for keeping the buying interest intact on an attractive bait of capital gains could well be the chief inspiring force behind the sustained rally.

Pak PTA, TRG Pakistan, Fauji Cement, Dewan Cement and Nimir Chemicals, Telecard, WorldCall Telecom and Bosicor Pakistan,which are considered undervalued but having potential of capital gains absorbed much of the selling overflowed from the overvalued shares.

"What seems to have given the credence to the market's current outstanding performance was, among other things, the strong presence of the foreign support", analyst Hasnain Asghar Ali said "but what make them so sure of the market's viability in the polarized political scenario is not clear".

Interim corporate earning reports for the half year ended June 30, are said to be on the higher side of the market perceptions and market talk of bonus shares by some of the undervalued companies did not allow investors and punters to keep to the sidelines for a single session.

However, it goes to the credit of the market that its performance is not influenced by the external factors as investors seem to have decided to go alone and in line with the market fundamentals rather than the fear of political uncertainty.