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Bonds are safe, gold is insurance against losses in 2026, says Dubai analyst
US-Iran tension, the Russia-Ukraine war, and trade wars between the US and other major economies will continue to influence markets and it will remain volatile like last year
- PUBLISHED: Mon 2 Feb 2026, 3:27 PM
- By:
- Waheed Abbas
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Global markets will be more volatile due to geopolitical tensions worldwide, with bonds the safest bet and gold the insurance to protect against losses, said Maurice Gravier, group chief investment officer at Emirates NBD Wealth Management, on Monday.
Speaking on the sidelines of the launch of the 'Annual Global Investment Outlook for 2026', he suggested investors have a diversified portfolio. "Bonds will be the safest bet. Gold is the insurance you need to have, because it's a dangerous world and it's a currency you cannot print,” Gravier, adding that emerging markets in general are also the best bet, through bonds and stocks, because they have lower valuations and stronger growth.
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Gold prices hit a record high last month, reaching $5,500 per ounce. But profit-taking pushed the precious metal down by $900 per ounce to around $4,600 per ounce on Monday.
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“It's going to be a very volatile year, as volatile as last year, with less upside potential, less performance. Last year, our performance was between 14 and 20 per cent; we will not get that at all. There's no way we can get that. It will be best between five and seven per cent,” he said.
Within emerging markets, Emirates NBD's CIO recommended GCC bonds as the “blue chip within emerging markets." He said emerging markets generally offer higher returns than developed markets and are safer, making them a safe bet.
US-Iran tension, the Russia-Ukraine war, and trade wars between the US and other major economies will continue to influence markets in 2026.
“We start 2026 with a number of unknowns, especially on the policy side. The remarkable resilience of 2025 is reassuring and does not suggest an imminent macro issue, but visibility is low. The outlook for the global economy will be challenged by policy uncertainty on the fiscal, monetary and trade fronts,” Emirates NBD analysts said in the report titled “Eyes Wide Open”.
The Dubai-based bank foresees the US Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates in 2026, expecting 75 bps of easing.
“2026 will see the Federal Reserve beset by internal debate and struggling to express a consensus view. Inflation in the US has still not slowed to the Fed’s target level of two per cent, but has decelerated materially,” the report said.
It also expects world trade to moderate in 2026, and G20 economies to show a strained fiscal position.
