Air passenger traffic seen surging

DUBAI - More than 17,300 new passenger and freight aircraft with a value of $1.9 trillion will be required by aircraft operators between 2004 and 2023, according to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast.

By A Staff Reporter

  • Follow us on
  • google-news
  • whatsapp
  • telegram

Published: Thu 16 Dec 2004, 11:06 AM

Last updated: Wed 1 Apr 2015, 11:54 PM

The report indicates that 16,600 new passenger aircraft of more than 100 seats will be needed in the coming 20-year period, creating an average delivery of 830 passenger aircraft per year. This requirement results from a three-fold growth in passenger traffic, or an average annual traffic growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) of 5.3 per cent, and replacement of 9,200 less fuel-efficient passenger aircraft through to 2023. Air freight is forecast to grow even faster, with freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) increasing annually by 5.9 per cent over the same period, generating the need for more than 700 new and 2,400 converted freighters.

The strong economic development of the Asia-Pacific region, especially in emerging economies, and the increasing impact of low-cost carriers in all domestic markets will significantly contribute to this growth. The nine trillion RPKs forecast in 2023 will largely be generated in Europe (32 per cent), Asia-Pacific (31 per cent) and North America (26pc).

To accommodate this three-fold growth in passenger traffic, the number of flights offered on passenger routes and the number of passenger aircraft in service will more than double in twenty years, accompanied by the use of larger aircraft. Airbus therefore forecasts that the average number of seats per passenger aircraft will increase by 20 per cent from 181 to 215 over this period.

Demand for air travel will result in the expansion of international traffic through the development of new routes as well as through consolidation of the major hubs. The bulk of the traffic growth will be driven by the concentration of population, wealth and industrial activities as well as the desire for low fares. Accounting for 22 per cent of the value of all new aircraft delivered in the next 20 years, as many as 1,650 new large passenger and freight aircraft worth $416 billion will be required. This includes 1,250 new passenger aircraft seating 450 or more passengers, of which more than half will serve the high-density population centres in Asia-Pacific.

Bigger, more spacious and more economical than anything flying today, new large passenger aircraft will enable airlines to meet growing demand for air travel despite increasing congestion in the air and on the ground, while their lower operating costs will allow operators to respond both to intensifying competition and to the increasing price-sensitivity of demand for air travel as markets mature.



More news from