Why Israel, Lebanon could start a war again

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said that a proposed bill by the Israeli parliament to redefine Israel's maritime economic border with Lebanon means a "declaration of war"

By Martin Jay

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Published: Mon 27 Mar 2017, 3:04 PM

Last updated: Mon 27 Mar 2017, 10:31 PM

Who will mediate between tiny Lebanon and Israel over a disputed area of ocean which is ripe for oil and gas exploration? I had previously written about a war brewing between these two regional foes egged on by regional superpowers. But now, after following this particular spat, I'm wondering if energy will be the spark that ignites the flame.
Last week, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said that a proposed bill by the Israeli parliament to redefine Israel's maritime economic border with Lebanon means a "declaration of war".
"It is a new attack on Lebanon's sovereignty," Berri added.
Berri argued that Israel sought to annex the controversial maritime zone of 860 square kilometers between Lebanon and Israel - believed to be rich in natural gas reserves - with the aim of extracting natural gas from this region.
It's largely Lebanon's fault though as the government here left it so long to offer tenders to international firms that Israel thought perhaps it could swipe the region for itself with little consequence. The Lebanese government, formed at the end of 2016 after a two-year political crisis, finally launched a licensing process in January for companies for oil and gas exploration in its exclusive economic zone.
Israel is now turning to Big Brother America to put pressure on Lebanon, claiming that Beirut's exploration for natural gas is against international laws.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, EIA, Lebanon depends heavily on energy imports to meet its domestic demand and the oil and gas alone from this one spot could make a massive change to what this tiny country spends on imported refined oil.
US Geological Survey estimates that the potential mean recoverable resources of this disputed are - called the Levant Basin - are 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Compare that to the tiny amount of 120,000 barrels per day of refined oil products, which accounted for over 90 per cent of total primary energy demand, and you get the picture. Lebanon could once again in its contemporary history be a cash rich economy as it once was before the outbreak of the civil war in 1975 - that is if it can avoid war with Israel.
But I wonder about the pragmatism of Lebanon's politicians and their own personal gains - or losses - which they may incur with a new economic flurry of cash and investment. There will be both winners and losers.
And like most political quagmires, there are those who will use any crisis as a rod for the back of others to extract gains, by hook or by crook.
Is that what is going on with the recent debate about the central bank governor? Riad Salameh is probably the most outstanding key figure in Lebanon for not only being the brainchild behind creating a bullet-proof system that protects the local currency against sliding, but also assiduously maintaining that system. You could say he is a genius.
But his tenure as governor is due for renewal in August and the president has never been a fan of his so there are political murmurings that he should be replaced. Like everything in Lebanon - even those who are not political, like Salameh himself - politics plays its hand here. Salameh is considered one of Hariri's men and therefore he is a commodity which can be played, traded and generally bandied about.
There is some concern from diplomats that if he were to go this would effect foreign investors who are just starting to mull coming back and some fear a re-evaluation of the lira currency. Others, in banking who I have discussed this with, have said that even a new bank governor probably wouldn't affect the stable lira as the mechanism which Salameh set up would have to be managed in the same was as before. No one has yet coined the well worn adage though "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" which I can't help feeling needs to be applied. Probably Salameh will stay in his post as to remove him would rank idiocy on a level akin to riding a bicycle in Beirut or declaring war on Israel. But what is behind the move? What does Michel Aoun want from the Hariri block in return for keeping their man in the most important job in the country?
- Martin Jay recently won the UN's prestigious Elizabeth Neuffer Memorial Prize (UNCA) in New York, for his journalism work in the Middle East. He is based in Beirut and can be followed at @MartinRJay


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