Is Pakistan gearing for snap polls next year?

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Is Pakistan gearing for snap polls next year?

Economy is expected to remain stable, but political headwinds might ruffle feathers in the country

By Waqar Mustafa

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Published: Sun 25 Dec 2016, 3:47 PM

Last updated: Sun 25 Dec 2016, 7:50 PM

The year 2017 may see Pakistan decide on whether it should go for snap polls, and experience a spurt in economic growth and social intolerance, pundits predict.
Asma Jahangir, a leading activist and UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights, says the year 2017 would be a challenging one for Pakistan. "At the international level we have to get out of the isolation we find ourselves in. At the social level, we have to be more sincere to many of the social issues rather than just pay lip service."
Challenges are enormous on the social front. "Religious intolerance is one challenge, dysfunctional governance another. We have to shed the hypocritical approach towards social progress. We want social progress, but we are resisting it in the name of tradition and religion. So, we to have to come to terms with ourselves with what we want," she says.
"To some extent, we have improved. But to a larger extent we need to build institutions. The approach of these institutions has to be for the betterment of the people rather than asserting their power. For example, the judiciary is there to protect people's rights and not to protect vested interest. Or, for that matter, regulators are there to protect consumer rights and not to look at those of the government. A shift in the mindset and perception is essential if Pakistan is going to make political and economic progress during 2017 and beyond," Jahangir suggested.
According to Sohail Warraich, Political Commentator and Senior Editor of Urdu-language daily Jang, an important event to watch out for during the next year would be whether Pakistan goes to early polls in 2017, or in 2018 as scheduled.
"The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has played its cards for the polls. It has expanded the cabinet in Punjab, the largest province the party rules. District council chairpersons favoured by it have been elected," says Warraich, adding that incompletion of some energy and development projects by 2017 might pose challenges. The party had won 2013 elections on assurances that such projects would be favoured and see the light of the day. However, if the ruling party faced a certain crisis, says Warraich, it could wriggle itself out of it by announcing elections.
During 2017, the ruling party will have to decide whether Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would contest the next elections or not. "Political whisperers are suggesting that Sharif might not continue the term and hand over power either to Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who is his brother; Maryam Nawaz, his daughter; or somebody else," he said.
According to Warraich an early election suits Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf only if government projects remain incomplete and the allegations of corruption against Sharif stay. Khan says Sharif has lost "moral authority" to rule after the Panama Papers leak has linked his family to offshore wealth.
Khan has seized the Panama Papers scandal as an opportunity to try to unseat Sharif. The former cricketing hero has staged protests in Islamabad for months in 2014 over alleged electoral fraud but failed to topple the prime minister.
But, Warraich says, if the Supreme Court, hearing several cases linked to the Panama scandal, hands down a verdict in Sharif's favour, his party would cash on it in the next general elections as "a clean chit".
The year 2017 polls do not suit the former ruling party, Pakistan People's Party headed by Asif Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto, said Warraich. "They will watch how Khan's PTI party fares, and allow Bilawal Bhutto to get a stronger grip on the party."
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has recently announced his ambition to become the prime minister of Pakistan in 2018. At a Foundation Day gathering in Lahore, Bilawal, the only son of assassinated former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, targeted Sharif, saying he did not know how to rule the country.
Warraich, however, calls the diatribe "only net practice". "They want to shift the gear from the friendly opposition they have been called to a real one; they have helped Sharif during the last three years. Now they want to show their teeth."
He called Pakistan's foreign policy flawed. "Unless state institutions are on the same page, it cannot improve. If they continue to bluff each other, foreign policy will not improve. We need a new narrative shedding the one which has done more harm than good to us," he suggests.
Mansoor Ahmad, Senior Economic Correspondent for English-language daily The News says PML-N would be reaping the fruits of its economic policies in 2017. "Despite criticism and street protests by opposition, the government's economic managers steadfastly pursued their economic agenda. Despite being dubbed as business friendly, its economic managers denied subsidies to the exporting sector. The exports did sink for a while but the upward trend is now visible and evident in November export data," says Ahmad.
He predicted lesser energy shortages next year and growth in exports. "However, remittances would remain flat, which is commendable in wake of declining remittances the world over including in India and Bangladesh. The rupee would come under pressure after almost three years of stability."
Ahmad says economy would pick up and average growth rate of above 6 per cent can be expected.
The $51-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would be operational by the end of 2017. Until now the boom in construction activities absorbed most of the unskilled labour in the country. This boom would continue in 2017 and industrial activities are also expected to pick up. We expect many green field projects in all sectors of economy including value-added textiles, engineering and food processing, foresaw Ahmad.
Waqar Mustafa is a Pakistan-based print, broadcast and online journalist.


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