|
|
2 May 2008
Fast forward 30 years and much has changed. The world’s most famous airlines have been joined by powerful new competition both on long distance routes and on shorter, budget-carrier friendly local itineraries.
The Internet means few of us even bother to use travel agents to book flights and hotels. And while we can fly further and holiday in more countries than ever before, climate change means growing numbers of travellers are considering the environmental impact of their journeys. What people travel for has changed too: rather than settling for two weeks on the beach we’re just as likely to travel for a sporting event or the wedding of a far-flung relation.
So what does the next 30 years hold for our holiday? Futurologists agree on one thing: more travel. The World Tourism Organisation, International Air Passenger Association and anyone else worth their salt forecast that global, tourism will continue to thrive as the world’s largest industry. And like much of the world’s business, we must look east for the biggest growth. Hundreds of millions of Chinese, Indian and other nationals will be able to afford to travel like never before.
If you want to know where, look to places close by where they can shake a loose leg: domestic beach and mountain resorts. And while everywhere is going to see more traffic, important hubs like London, Dubai, Hong Kong and Singapore will bear the main burden of increased visitors.
So more travel, but what kind of travel? The clues are in how people have started to travel over the past few years. In Europe, the growth of no-frills budget airlines has invigorated the short breaks market. Where once it was an expensive and ponderous undertaking to fly from London to Rome for the weekend, there are now several airlines fighting for your business. Competition is tight and keeps costs low.
Already the US market is going the same way, with launches from the likes of Virgin America and Jet Blue, and there are signs similar things are happening in Asia too. Slowly but surely the cheap and cheerful direct booking model is entering the long-haul market, too. Zoom Airlines, flying from the UK to Canada, New York and Bermuda and Oasis Hong Kong (London to HK) offer low fares and good service at a lower price than legacy carriers. Look for both of these to continue, offering more choice to more destinations.
Certainly, if entrepreneurs like Tony Fernandes of Air Asia X, shortly to begin flying from Kuala Lumpur to Australia’s Gold Coast using a budget model have anything to do with it flying will continue to get cheaper.
More cheap flights, then, but what about once you’re there? It seems we’re going to be putting that spare cash to good use if the recent boom in activities and niche holidays are anything to go by. It would have been impossible to envisage that we’d fly halfway round the world to indulge passions like trekking, diving, or watching sport. Yet football fans think nothing of following a World Cup in Japan, Korea or, come 2010, South Africa, and the Galapagos Islands are so popular that quotas are in place to ensure visitor numbers do not get out of hand.
Clearly we’re not afraid to spend money on great hotels, too. While over-the-top opulence may be giving way to understated minimalist chic in boutique hotels, the trend is for bigger, higher and more features. Of course, Dubai is the world centre of hotel ideas.
But all this wonderful, exciting travelling relies on everyone still being able to travel with the freedom and carefree spontaneity many of us enjoy today. The world, however, is changing, and over the next 30 years travel may become an endangered species. The contribution of aviation to global carbon emissions today hovers at around 5 per cent, but this will grow hugely, especially if other, bigger polluters cut back on their carbon output. Pressure is growing on airlines and plane manufacturers to demonstrate a greater commitment to environmental matters.
So far the aviation industry has responded by achieving small-scale reductions while continuing to grow at a fast pace, but it is a goal of the International Air Travel Association (IATA) to make air travel a zero emissions industry.
How this is squared with the projected growth in travel is unclear – and it is here that uncertainty lies. As oil becomes scarcer and measures to tackle global warming stricter, every industry must do its part. One possible outcome is less flights, more heavily taxed travel or even restrictions on movement.
As I look into my crystal ball this is the least palatable possible future – but it is likely if air travel cannot find ways to minimise pollution.
There is, of course, an alternative vision. The Slow Food movement, originally intended to encourage the use of local ingredients and preserve traditional recipes, has spawned Slow Travel, an idea based on rediscovering what’s on your own doorstep and, in line with environmental concerns, avoiding flying wherever possible.
The idea has considerable appeal in a world which is growing to be faster-paced, connected and more stressful than ever before. It seems logical then that we should react to this by rediscovering what’s close at hand, and avoid the guilty feeling of a long-haul flight. This is good news for domestic tourism and all those who seek to encourage it.
The other element in avoiding flying is that ground transport needs to speed up. We’re already seeing this in Europe with investment in high-speed passenger links. With coordinated timetables, London is now six hours from Frankfurt by rail — which competes well with the equivalent flight.
Train is also a much more pleasant way to travel. But worldwide the upgrading of road and rail networks is not just a possibility but a necessity if travel is to become truly green. A high-speed Trans-Siberian railway is not as far-fetched as it once seems.
Of course, sea routes like the north-west passage may well open up as ice melts. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that passenger shipping, rather than cruising, could stage a comeback, especially if air travel is restricted.
Or alternatively, there is a future where these problems don’t matter thanks to some smart-alec who invents an emissions free, never-ending source of fuel. In which case you’ll be glad for Space Adventures, Virgin Galactic and Starchaser, to name just a few of the companies vying for the business of the super-rich few who can afford to consider the US$200,000 required to blast them into space.
Virgin Galactic are planning to start regular services in 2009, so in a few decades time a trip into orbit could be as regular as a first-class flight to Australia. It’s unlikely that budget space travel will ever be a reality, but with more millionaires than ever before, there are sure to be no shortage of takers to boldly go where many, many travellers will have gone before.
BUT FOR many of us, travel will remain in the next few decades as it has done in the past: a retreat from the worries of the world, and a chance to explore its beautiful places and meet wonderful people.
I hope that in 30 years I can tell you I’ve been lucky enough to travel to many more destinations, climbed dozens of mountains and cycled hundreds of miles. Travel remains about fulfilling individual dreams, and hopefully the means will be there to allow us to continue to do so. That’s what got those first passengers hopping on Concorde in 1976, and in 2036 will ensure that people are still exploring.
HERE’S 10 great destinations for sun, ski or something completely different
1. Skiing in Switzerland: Verbier is a fantastic resort to see and be seen at – and with 35 beginners runs, it’s not a bad place to start to learn if you’ve never been before.
2. South Africa: Warm on the coast, baking inland, a December trip here is wonderful for wildlife, hiking or exploring Cape Town, one of the world’s most exciting cities. Watch out for the school holiday crowds in January!
3. Vancouver: A great year-round city with excellent restaurants, museums and night-life, a short hop from the winter playground of Whistler-Blackcomb.
4. Budapest- Prague: Train between these two fairytale cities with plenty of snow on the ground. Expect the best cake and coffee of your life.
5. Iceland: Hot springs open year-round, the northern lights and Reykjavik’s fantastic nightlife – Iceland is an awesome place in winter despite the cold!
6. Canaries: Fast becoming a boutique getaway to rival Andalucia, the Canaries other-world landscapes are a great, unusual escape
7. Istanbul: Simply fascinating at any time, the great crossroads of the world is wonderful in winter and devoid of the crowds that flock to Hagia Sofia and the Blue Mosque at other times of year.
8. Bora Bora: Paradise on earth. The South Pacific is the perfect winter hideaway and this class tropical island has, surprisingly, something for every budget.
9. Tasmania: Tassie is home to wonderful wine, unspoilt temperate rainforest and great trekking. It’s also perfect for sailing, cycling and getting into the great outdoors. Don’t miss it when you’re in Australia!
10. Japan: Explore buzzing urban Tokyo and traditional Kyoto, then hop on the bullet train for Hokkaido’s awesome snow scene.
EUROPE TO OZ IN 4 HOURS:
WE ALL mourned the loss of our beloved Concorde but it seems that an even faster mode of transport is in development – an aircraft that could get you from Europe to Australia in four hours is currently in development.
UK-based space transport and propulsion system’s company Reaction Engines have come up with the design as part of an investigation into the possibility of hypersonic civil transport. The A2 Airframe would travel at hypersonic speeds using liquid hydrogen fuel capable of sustained Mach 5 flight — two and a half times faster than Concorde. Able to carry 300 passengers it is thought that the cost of a seat on the plane would be similar to an existing business class ticket.
The A2 would be about double the length of a Boeing A380 Airbus, but would have a more streamlined fuselage — and as it uses hydrogen fuel the vehicle would also be environmentally friendly.
The project, called LAPCAT (Long-Term Advanced Propulsion Concepts and Technologies) is 50 per cent EU funded, and is looking into the operation of commercial transport in Mach numbers ranging from 4 to 8.
The aircraft would also need to attain an exceptional range of approximately 20,000 km, both subsonic and supersonic. There is no word on whether the A2 will ever take to the skies, but if the developers are successful you could wake up in Australia and be at home in Europe in time for tea!
