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Gulf’s Iran Problem


29 September 2009
Iran seems hell bent on collision. Only a couple of days before a meeting with the United Nations Security Council member states and Germany, Iran has tested its longest-range missiles.

The clear message, contradicts the sugar-coated proposals put forth by Tehran some weeks back. More importantly, it negates the purpose of the talks, aimed at resolving the deadlock over Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme. It also confirms doubts over Iran’s intentions: it could, indeed, be, hoodwinking the world on the nuclear issue. The development of long range missile delivery systems — Shahab-3b and Sajjil can easily reach Israel and US bases in the Gulf — has exacerbated existing concerns. This comes amid heightened speculation of Iran’s capability to enrich uranium and is close on the heels of an alarming disclosure of another ‘secret’ uranium enrichment site, northeast of Qom.

The implications of a future fallout between Iran and an outside state such as Israel or the US are too momentous to be ignored in the Gulf. This is why the UAE Foreign Minister, Shaikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, at the UN General Assembly, urged the Iranian government to cooperate with relevant stakeholders on an immediate basis.  Iran’s nuclear issue is of extreme concern to its neighbours. UAE itself is a good example of attaining international support for civilian nuclear energy without getting embroiled in controversy and pursuing covert, illegal means to do so. 

While Shaikh Abdullah advised Iran to extend deeper cooperation to the nuclear watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency, he also emphasised the wisdom of diplomatic and political efforts to resolve the standoff.  The bottomline was to avoid an escalation of tensions leading to regional instability. Though external military intervention in Iran has been made the last option, it remains a possibility, and is bound to create an implosion within the region, causing further destabilisation.

The States in the region are faced with a dilemma that emanates from Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear bomb with its obvious security implications.  Related to that is the regional concern about an outside military strike to halt Iranian nuclear development. Gulf waters are already bristling with external military presence and strategic energy traffic. Iran’s warnings of unleashing retaliatory attacks across the region cannot be so easily dismissed, considering Iran’s uneasy relations with its neighbours. Bahrain and the UAE, among others, have suffered at the hands of Iranian expansionist and interventionist policies in the past. Iran’s illegal occupation of territories — such as the dispute over the UAE islands of Abu Musa, Lower Tunb and Greater Tunb — and activities fuelling sectarian unrest within the region have been a major headache for these states. Similarly, Iran’s policies in the wider Middle East and Gulf, such as in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, have fostered the negative perception about its role and goals.  The UAE has shown exemplary patience in striving for a peaceful resolution to the island dispute and continues in its efforts to engage Tehran.  At this point, Iran is on the verge of deciding the future of its nation. It is hoped that it will display fortitude to not only realise its past mistakes but also rein back a rapidly deteriorating situation. One that will have far-reaching regional implications and will not be confined to Iran.

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