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Yemen’s Regional Challenge


12 November 2009
The situation in Yemen is getting worse by the day. While Saudi Arabia claims it has ousted the infiltrating Houthi rebels from its territory, further deterioration in the military engagement is a real possibility. It may well conflagrate regionally, making Yemen another theatre for proxy battles of regional states.

The escalation of tensions has led to the Kingdom imposing a naval blockade of Yemen’s Red Coast. While this is aimed at fighting the rebels along the coast, it could also be meant to close the sea route, possibly to cut off external aid for the Houthis.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has directly blamed Iran for supporting the rebels, who belong to the Shia minority. Only recently, the government intercepted a ship carrying five Iranian nationals and a cache of weapons off the coast of Yemen.  Iran has denied all charges of aiding the rebels against the government. Always quick to come to the defense of Shia minority groups in the region—whether its in Bahrain, Kuwait or elsewhere—Iran has expressed disapproval of Yemen’s unfair treatment of the rebels, saying that they have been forced to take up arms against oppression. Besides admonishing Yemen for not addressing the grievances of its minorities, Iran has sounded an indirect warning to Saudi. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Moutakki has asked Yemen’s bordering states not to intervene in the state’s internal matters.

For Saudi, the problem is larger and simply clearing its border of the Houthis will not be enough. Yemen is not only the poorest country in the GCC neighbourhood, it faces internal strife on three different sides. Apart from the Houthi rebels in the north, Yemen is tackling separatists in the south and a well-entrenched ‘Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’, that has successfully established a relationship with disparate groups. With Yemen emerging as the epicentre of Al Qaeda in the Gulf, the fear is of the organisation exploiting the ongoing instability and making inroads into Saudi, a choice target. An insecure border is simply unacceptable for Saudi. Riyadh’s political and financial support to Yemen is well known. Its decision to come down hard on the rebels is bound by a policy of non-tolerance of territorial violations. In doing so, the Saudi government has also sent a clear message to outside states to refrain from inciting trouble. They will be dealt with.

While Saudi actions in this case are justified, given the particular nature of rebels actions, Iran’s involvement is likely to complicate the situation.  As for lecturing Sanna on addressing its minority grievances, Iran should adopt the same policy at home for its Sunni minority. It is hoped that prudence prevails and the situation is stabilised. Otherwise, it faces the danger of spreading into a wider regional conflict.

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