As feared, the Ethiopian assault is assuming dangerous proportions and threatening to explode into a full-scale regional conflict. Yet the international community remains silent. That all efforts must be made to preserve the painfully put together transitional government — especially since it was the 14th attempt to establish it — is understandable. But it is also important to note that the Islamists were able to expand their influence and gather mass sympathy because they put an end to what the West-backed government could not — wide spread lawlessness and factionalism.
The position of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in Somalia, comprising the hard-line Islamists, is strangely reminiscent of the Taleban before they were ousted from Afghanistan. Despite their repressive rules, they did provide Afghans with the element of security that eluded both their predecessors and successors, in addition to putting up a resistance the occupiers seem increasingly incapable of finishing off. There is an important lesson to be drawn from this.
The big powers behind the Ethiopian push need to realise that there are wiser options on the table than using muscle to subdue an extremist enemy. Rather than using armoured tanks and aircraft to ‘free Somalis of the UIC’, it is more prudent to make efforts to provide the people with the necessities that only the hardliners seem capable of assuring. What would eventual peace be worth if bolstering the government means killing, injuring and displacing hundreds of thousands of innocent people who already live far from enviable lives?