The GCC statement comes at a pivotal time when Yemen is facing three major security challenges—the ongoing military conflict in the north with Houthi rebels, the continuing unrest in the south, and the threat posed by the internal and external activities of ‘Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’ based in Yemen. The challenges facing Yemen’s authorities point to a steadily worsening security situation in the country. While all the GCC states are equally concerned about the escalating security problem, states that neighbour Yemen—Saudi Arabia and Oman—are particularly worried about the actual and potential impact of the situation on their own stability and security.

Saudi Arabia views the Houthi rebellion as a major security challenge; with the rebellion spreading to areas close to the Yemen-Saudi border, the Kingdom perceives the rebels as a direct threat to its security. The Saudi government has made it clear that monitoring and controlling the border is an absolute necessity and has supported the decision of the Yemeni government to act against the rebels. At the same time, Saudi has stayed away from interfering directly in the military conflict.

While the Houthis accuse the Saudis of being involved in the military offensive in north Yemen, there is no evidence to prove the accusation. However as the military operation is taking place on or very close to the border between the two states, the Kingdom has taken all required measures to defend its borders, maintain security and protect its citizens on the Saudi side of 
the border.  For the GCC states, the Houthi conflict is no longer a local problem that only concerns Yemen. The repeated failure of the Yemeni government since 2004 to put an end to the Houthi rebellion by military or diplomatic means has generated deep concern among Gulf as well as Arab states.  In 2007, and as part of the GCC states’ efforts to settle the problem, the Qatar government launched a mediation process between the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels. The mediation ended last year after the Doha agreement failed to bring an end to the conflict and both sides accused each other of violating the agreement. The Doha agreement was criticised even by some Yemeni politicians who alleged that it had made too many concessions to the Houthi rebels.

With the Yemeni government now accusing Iran of meddling in the current conflict in the north, regional states fear that the situation could develop into a wider regional conflict with a strategic dimension. However, as of now, there is little hard evidence to support the charge of direct Iranian interference. Yet it seems that the Houthis have obvious sympathy of Iran and its friends in the Arab world as seen from the political and media support to the Houthis. The programmes broadcast by Al Alam TV, the official Iranian Arabic-language television news channel, in support of the Houthis or speeches made by the Iraqi Shia leader Moqtada Al-Sadr in support of his “Houthi brothers in Yemen” are good examples of such sympathy but cannot be taken as proof of actual Iranian interference.

However, the recent arrest of five Iranians on board a ship in the Red Sea that was allegedly carrying arms for the rebels in north Yemen could be seen by the region as an indication of possible direct Iranian support for Houthis. If direct support is proven, it will only strengthen the GCC’s fears about the extent of Iran’s interventionist policy aimed at destabilising the Gulf.

Another issue that worries the GCC states and Saudi Arabia in particular is terrorism. The assassination attempt against Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the Saudi Assistant Interior Minister which was planned and organised in Yemen by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula last August was followed by the incident in mid-October in which two Al-Qaeda extremists wearing explosive vests, who had crossed over from Yemen to the Saudi Province of Jizan, were killed. These two cases are seen as proof that a deteriorating security situation in Yemen could have a direct impact on the Kingdom’s security. All the other GCC states too fear that similar incidents could be repeated in their territory. Although, so far it is only Saudi Arabia that has been targeted by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula based in Yemen, GCC states do not necessarily believe that they are immune against a potential terrorist attack. On the contrary, they are of the firm belief that if Al-Qaeda in Yemen is left alone, it is most likely to expand its operations beyond Yemen and potentially target GCC states. Against this background, Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Ahmed stated during the Interior Ministers meeting that dealing with security challenges, including terrorism, is a “joint responsibility, and coordinated are required to root out terrorism.”

In the past, each of the GCC states has voiced strong support for Yemen’s unity. In May this year, Oman even withdrew the citizenship it had granted to Ali Salim Al-Beidh, the former president of PDRY, after he announced that he was resuming political activity. During his visit to Yemen in October, Amr Moussa, the Secretary-General of the Arab League, declared the unity of Yemen as a “red line” and underlined the League’s support for the country. In the meanwhile, the Yemeni government has made it clear that the unity of Yemen is top priority and is not negotiable. Disintegration of Yemen will in fact only lead to a civil war that would further aggravate the situation in the North, strengthen Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, potentially invite external interference, and have a destabilising impact on the entire region.

While the GCC states have expressed their support towards ensuring the stability and unity of Yemen, it is not statements alone that matter but also policies. The GCC needs a more comprehensive approach towards Yemen’s problems, not focused solely on security issues. In fact, some of Yemen’s security challenges are linked to the economic situation in the country. Therefore, GCC states should focus on providing economic assistance which includes not only financial aid but also investment in infrastructure, education and training that benefit Yemeni people directly. The current security problems in Yemen are likely to have an impact on its attempt to become a full member of the GCC as the Yemeni application will not be seriously considered until security problems in the country are solved permanently.

Nicole Stracke is a researcher with the Security and Terrorism Department at the Gulf Research Center, Dubai