This is when the deal gets a safe passage at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) with India finally making up its mind.

The political parties that have turned the tables on the UPA government and made it a potent national issue  could get a shocker if the US Congress states that it is too late for them to endorse the agreement

Nuclear Timeline

Top US official told Khaleej Times that the political parties within the ruling coalition are seriously assuming that the deal is going through. But they are not even thinking whether the government is too late in approaching the IAEA and NSG. What is being ignored is the time factor that does not appear to be on their side, said the official.

“For India, precious time has gone in settling and convincing those who were unhappy with the deal. Finally, when they seem to have made up their mind, it appears that they are pretty late,” said an official.

The chairman of the House of Representatives Sub-Committee on the Middle East and South Asia, Gary Ackerman, is of the view that there isn’t much time left to ratify the deal.

His statement is significant considering that he is visiting India today. “The clock has run out on our side of the border, because the clock has run out on their side. They’re not going to be able to do it in time for us to act in this calendar year, and certainly not during President (George) Bush’s administration,” Ackerman was quoted as saying yesterday.

It is said that unending political sparring held up the agreement, and now when the time isn’t much, India is willing to go in for the mandatory clearances from the IAEA and NSG. Following this, the deal would have to go to the US Congress for final approval. With the possibility of such an event, new uncertainty cropping up, it is believed that Left parties parting ways over the nuclear issue may not serve any purpose after all.

The earliest the government can approach the IAEA is mid-July after the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, returns from the G-8 summit from Tokyo. The IAEA board of governors would have to be approached then, and the draft of the deal would be circulated among the board members for clearance.

Counting Days

Top government officials say that this could take at least 2-3 weeks. “Going by the timeline that we have, one can assume that the whole process of IAEA and NSG approval would take at least six weeks. By mid-August, we will know when to approach the US Congress for the final approval of the deal,” said a senior South Block official.

The time is running out ahead of US congressional and presidential elections in November, and the inauguration of Bush’s successor in January. Though New Delhi seems to have worked quietly to provide the deal a safe passage at the IAEA and the NSG, it is doubtful that the deal would sail through to the US Congress well in time for its bilateral ratification.

The nuclear superpowers - the US, France, Britain and Russia - are working in tandem to mobilise support for the deal. According to reports, the National Security Advisor, M.K. Narayanan, even undertook a quiet trip to Teheran to convince Iran of the development. Despite some reservations in a section of the NSG member-countries, the deal could pass through this test.

But not with the US Congress later, if one believes Ackerman. The Congress-led UPA government has already gone to the IAEA, and negotiated a safeguards agreement. The text of this agreement has not been shown either to the UPA-Left committee or made public. The government now insists that it is going ahead for getting the board’s approval without the UPA-Left committee giving its concurrence.

Vote in Parliament

Officials have pointed out that as per the prime minister’s proposal, the government should be allowed to take the next step of getting the NSG waiver. “After both the steps are taken for making operational the deal, the prime minister promises to take the sense of parliament. This would mean a fait accompli, as the only step left would be the vote in the US Congress,” officials said.

It is for this reason that the monsoon session of Parliament could be delayed. It is likely that the monsoon session would not be held before August, and by that time Dr Singh should be ready to face the Parliament. The Left parties that are heading for a divorce with the UPA, feel that Dr Singh has given statements about returning to Parliament after completing the processes.

After the processes like signing the safeguards agreement with the IAEA, getting a waiver from the NSG, and an endorsement by the US Congress, it would be more difficult to stop the agreement from being implemented, assert the Left parties that will take the crucial decision to withdraw support from the UPA this week. However, speculation is rife that Congress could save the coalition by wheeling dealing, and go ahead with the deal.