Key factors behind the forecast are strong underlying economic growth, increasing household consumption, growing acceptance of modern retailing concepts and expatriate wealth.

The UAE’s nominal GDP was US$245.47bn in 2008, with a decline of 3.0 % now assumed for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. The authors predict average annual GDP growth of 4.7% between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 4.7mn in 2008 to an estimated 5.4mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by almost 17% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$60,753.

Average household spending power in the UAE stands at US$14,400 per annum, according to property consultants Colliers International. Emirati households account for the lion’s share of this spending, with an average of US$23,000, while ‘Western’, ‘Other Arab’ and ‘Asian’ households have annual spending power of US$19,500, US$13,500 and US$10,000, respectively.

While Emiratis actively contributed to retail sales, the buying power of the country’s expatriate residents was the major source of success, a study by

India-based RNCOS researchers found. Tourism is also a massive factor in stimulating retail growth, with the UAE expecting more than 11mn tourists every year by 2010.

Growing urbanisation is also factor in the buoyancy of the retail sector. Abu Dhabi in particular is highly urbanised, with the Urban Planning Council (UPC) projecting that Abu Dhabi City’s population will rise to 1.3mn by 2013. In 2005, 85.5% of the UAE’s population was classified by the UN as urban and this is forecast to increase to 86.3% by 2010.

The UN describes 73% of the UAE population in 2005 as economically active, forecast to rise to 78.6% by 2015. In 2005, just over 30% of the population was in the crucial, for retail sales, 20-44 age range, and this is expected to hit 57.6% by 2015.

Retail sub-sectors showing strong growth over the forecast period include over-the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to increase by 64%, from US$0.15bn in 2008 to US$0.25bn by 2013.

Automotive sales are forecast to rise by 33%, from US$10.38bn to US$13.80bn, during the forecast period; while sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$2.88bn in 2008 to US$3.98bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of 38%.

Retail sales for our set of MEA countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$382bn, based on the varying national definitions.

Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$660.41bn. In 2008, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 79.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 80.7% by 2013.