The last parliamentary election in 2005 was held amid raging sectarian violence that brought Iraq to the brink of civil war and many Sunni Arab voters stayed at home, disenchanted by the loss of the dominance they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein’s regime.

But in provincial elections in January, Sunni Arab electors turned out in numbers and they are expected to do so again next year intensifying the battle for their votes.

On Saturday, the largest Sunni bloc in the current parliament, the Iraqi Concord Front, announced its first 49 candidates for January’s election but the alliance is no longer the dominant force that it once was.

Based around the 25 MPs of the Islamic Party — the main Iraqi wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, the leading Islamist grouping across the Arab world — the bloc has lost some of its former allies.

It still has the support of the seven MPs of the Conference for the People of Iraq of Adnan al-Dulaimi, of two small Kurdish and Turkmen factions and of some tribal leaders.

But other Sunni parties are either in talks with rival groupings or considering field candidates on their own.

The National Dialogue Council of Sheikh Khaled al-Alayan, which has seven MPs in the current parliament, is one of those considering going it alone.

The Independent Arab Bloc, which has eight MPs in the present parliament, has split down the middle.

Its leader Abdel Mutlaq al-Juburi and two of its MPs have decided to join the new non-confessional State of the Law alliance headed by Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

The other five have yet to announce their plans.

Some Sunni tribal leaders too have been won over to the prime minister’s new list. Some have even decided to make common cause with the dominant Shiite bloc in the current parliament, the Iraqi National Alliance.

The National Dialogue Front of Saleh al-Mutlaq is considering an alliance with secularist former prime minister Iyad Allawi, as is the Sunni Arab list which in January won a majority on the provincial council for the main northern city of Mosul.

The Islamic Party is even threatened by defections from within its own ranks.

Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, who used to lead the party, is also in talks with Allawi.

Islamic Party leader Osama al-Tikriti put a brave face on his party’s fortunes.

“Some members have left us and some groups have joined us but we have emerged stronger,” Tikriti said.

“The people need personalities who are going to represent them, bandage their wounds and enable them to recover their rights.

“We have no red lines and we are open to anyone who wants to strengthen democracy and to ally with us.”

But Baghdad University politics professor Hamid Fadel said the Islamic Party had brought many of its problems on itself by attempting to monopolise the politics of the Sunni Arab community and the posts reserved for it under Iraq’s power-sharing constitution.

Not only did the party’s former leader Hashemi take the vice presidency, parliament speaker Iyad al-Samarrai is also a leading party member.

“The desire for political dominance the Islamic Party has shown in recent years has not encouraged other Sunni parties to ally with it,” Fadel told AFP.

“Instead it’s pushed them to try to acquire as much influence as they can by fielding their own candidates at the polls.

“What’s more, many Sunni Arabs reckon it’s better to have people in all the political alliances so as to improve their chances of being well represented in parliament.”

But Fadel stressed that Prime Minister Maliki’s decision to break with the Shiite list on which he won election in 2005 and seek allies for his Dawa party across the confessional divide meant the Shiite majority too would be going into January’s election deeply split.

Given Iraq’s recent history of sectarian bloodshed, he said that was to be welcomed.

“There are splits among Shiites as well as Sunnis and if these endure it will be a very positive thing for the country because it means electors will be voting along party political lines and not confessional ones.”