Fears abound that the posts of first-ever EU president and a foreign policy supremo, designed to streamline the workings of the expanded bloc, could do the exact opposite, causing confusion outside Europe and friction within.
‘This could become a benediction or something incoherent,’ which could transform the EU into a hot air factory,’ warned France’s European Affairs Minister Pierre Lellouche.
The main aims of the treaty, which is expected to enter force on December 1, are to give Europe a powerful unified voice on the world stage and improve its sometimes byzantine decision-making, partly by scrapping a number of national vetoes.
The new post of president, Europe’s first ‘George Washington’, is aimed at answering former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger’s famous question: ‘Who do I call if I want to call Europe?’
But with the chances of former British premier Tony Blair waning, the likelihood is that a less high-profile figure will take the top job, perhaps with a top politician in the role of foreign affairs high representative.
The Lisbon Treaty is vague on the precise roles, particularly for the top job.
What is clear is that the foreign policy supremo, a beefed-up version of the job that Javier Solana currently does, will be in charge of a vast diplomatic service of several thousand officials.
The office holder could emerge as the new European strongman, especially if someone with the weight of British Foreign Secretary David Miliband — who insists he is not in the running — gets the nod.
The relative power of the two new jobs ‘is a very delicate question that still needs to be addressed,’ one European government source said. And the ambition of EU leaders will be measured by their choice.
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, in his blog, warned of the possibility of a ‘minimal solution’ as his country, currently presiding over the bloc, seeks to find a candidate to please, or at least not offend, everybody.
Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso, who sees himself as the guardian of European interests, recently secured a second five-year term and does not intend to forego his role representing the European Union at home and abroad.
On top of that the existing system whereby EU nations take six-month turns at the EU’s rotating presidency will continue in a lesser form, organising regular ministerial meetings, though not at foreign minister level.
Spain, Belgium and Hungary are the next presidency countries, ready to serve their stints after the current Swedish EU presidency ends on December 31.
The three nations have already said they have no intention of being sidelined and will indeed coordinate their efforts.
Recalling Kissinger’s question, Lellouche warned that in the new EU ‘you could have four’ numbers to call; the EU president, the rotating presidency, the head of the European Commission and the foreign policy supremo.
And that’s before you start considering the often conflicting interests of the national governments of the 27 EU member states.
The Brussels-based European Policy Centre think-tank warns that the contents of the Lisbon Treaty must be introduced very carefully.
‘There is undoubtedly potential for frictions, turf battles and dysfunctional solutions,’ the think-tank warned recently.
A key decision will be whether the leaders choose a EU president who will stop traffic when he arrives anywhere, the Blair option, or is more of an administrator and consensus-builder, like Belgian Prime Minister Herman van Rompuy, the favourite and well-versed in dealing with feuding factions at home.
‘He must be aware of the limits of his role, and not to try to be a second foreign minister,’ warned German EU deputy Elmer Brok, a specialist on institutional questions.
That’s one reason the presidency may go to a smaller nation.
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