Khaddam’s accusations made during his interview with Arab satellite television channel Al Arabiya last week suggesting Syria may have had a hand in killing former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri indeed raises many questions. But will the political tsunami unleashed by Khaddam shake the foundations of the Syrian regime enough to bring about the demise of President Bashar Assad? That remains to be seen.

The current regime, first established in 1970 when Hafez Assad took power in a bloodless coup, has been the most stable government Syria has experienced since its independence from both the Ottoman Empire in 1918 and later from France in 1946.  Until then, hardly three or four years went by without some sort of political upheaval, coup d’etat or revolution taking place, often accompanied by violence.

But if Washington has been strangely silent in the week following Khaddam’s damning accusations, the United Nations lost no time in demanding that it wants the commission investigating the Hariri assassination to interview the Syrian president and Foreign Minister Farouq Sharaa. Will the president allow it? That too remains to be seen, though it is unlikely.

Blame it on the year-end holidays, but the Bush administration, which has been calling for reforms in the Middle East, including pushing for a change in Syria, has been unusually quiet so far on the Khaddam affair. What is obvious, though, is that Khaddam has crossed the point of no return and that he will never be able to set foot in Syria so long as the current regime remains in place. Meanwhile, the question being asked is why would a man who spent the past 40 years serving his country loyally, first as foreign minister and then as vice president, suddenly turn on his country and face treason charges?

What is most interesting is the fact that the former Syrian Vice President chose Paris for his exile, where French President Jacques Chirac saw no problem in allowing him to set up shop, bring his family and grant that revealing interview from the French capital.§ At this point, there are two very important observations to be made. First, that Rafik Hariri was a close friend of Khaddam. Khaddam took it upon himself to attend Hariri’s funeral, which he did in his personal capacity, and not as the representative of the Syrian government. Khaddam was visibly emotional at the funeral, shaken by the murder of his friend.

Second, Hariri was also a close friend of Chirac’s. So is it a coincidence that Khaddam ended up in Paris? Is it a coincidence that Chirac, already furious over Hariri’s killing, does not seem to care about the diplomatic ramifications of Khaddam’s interview? Anyone subscribing to conspiracy theories might read more into this than might first meet the eye.

Some say that Khaddam is seeking revenge for not being given the presidency when President Hafez Assad died in June 2000. There may be an inkling of truth in that. Yet others see in Khaddam’s declarations as a battle not only over political positioning, but over some very lucrative business ventures.

Much is already being said about rewarding deals he and his sons have benefited from, such as their monopoly on the profitable cell phone industry in Lebanon. The cellular telephone was the ideal answer to Lebanon’s antiquated and crumbling landline system.

As hostilities from the civil war ceased, "Syrian and Lebanese powerbrokers saw an opportunity to create an artificially lucrative GSM market," reported the January 2003 edition of The Middle East Intelligence Bulletin. Bashar’s initial anti-corruption campaign launched shortly after he took power from his father in July 2000, was simply to divert funds from the so-called old guard, to benefit his own people, according to the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin. Among the old guard were Khaddam and former Syrian Chief of Staff Hikmat Shihabi.

Asked why someone like Khaddam, who has loyally served the Syrian government for the past 40 years would suddenly change, Imad Mustapha, Syria’s ambassador to Washington told me: "He wants to become a born again reformer. Suddenly he has seen the light on the road to Damascus."

Rather, in Khaddam’s case, it must be that he saw the light on the road from Damascus on his way into exile, from where he will henceforth have to keep looking over his shoulder. Unless he is too busy planning his return with a little help from his friends.

Claude Salhani is International Editor and a political analyst with United Press International in Washington. Comments may be sent to Claude@upi.com