Eight of 15 oil analysts surveyed by Reuters Nov. 21-24 said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was unlikely to announce any reduction at its informal gathering in Cairo on Saturday.

Most believe the 12-member group, responsible for around 40 percent of the world’s oil production, will instead tighten supply at its policy-setting meeting in Oran, Algeria, on Dec. 17.

‘OPEC will probably sit on the fence and wait until their meeting in December before adjusting production,’ said Harry Tchilinguirian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London.

‘The only thing that could change that would be a big fall in prices over the next few days.’

A collapse in oil prices over the last four months to around $50 from a peak of more than $147 a barrel in July has forced OPEC to consider all its options.

The price fall has coincided with recession in the major consumer countries and a consequent drop in oil use.

Some economists say world oil use may even see a rare contraction next year.

Although some OPEC members, such as Qatar, can manage with a relatively low oil price, other members of the group require much higher prices.

Venezuela needs more than $90 a barrel this year in order to balance its external accounts, according to Washington-based consultancy PFC Energy. Iran is thought to need almost $60.

‘IMPORTANT DECISION’

To try to support the market, OPEC called an emergency meeting on Oct. 24 when it agreed to reduce production by 1.5 million bpd to just over 27.3 million bpd.

But prices have fallen by more than $10 since last month’s meeting.

The Cairo talks are not a formal OPEC conference, but all members of the group have been invited to attend. Originally, only the group’s core members, who form the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), were to meet in the Egyptian capital.

Since an initial announcement on Nov. 12 that the OAPEC meeting could be widened, OPEC President Chakib Khelil has downplayed expectations there would be an early output decision.

Khelil said on Friday ministers would not have enough data on the impact of their output reduction so far when they meet in Cairo and OPEC would very likely take an ‘important decision’ when it meets in Oran in December.

‘In Cairo we will not have the complete data about the market,’ Khelil said. ‘It’s very possible that we will not take a decision until we will see the impact-this impact will not likely be seen until December.’

That argument is fairly widely accepted by analysts.

‘Until the full impact of the cuts on Oct. 24 can be properly assessed, it will be difficult for OPEC,’ said Julian Lee, senior energy analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

With prices so low, it is also extremely painful for some OPEC countries, particularly smaller states, to agree production cuts and OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia has made it clear it is unwilling to shoulder all the burden of output cuts.

‘At these prices some OPEC producers have little choice but to pump full on,’ said Jan Stuart, analyst at UBS in New York.

But several analysts anticipate a cut this weekend, arguing OPEC cannot wait any longer. Rob Laughlin of MF Global said the market would respond badly if OPEC left Cairo without a cut.

‘To go into that meeting and come out empty-handed would certainly produce lower prices. To do nothing is not an option,’ he said.

If/when OPEC will announce production cut and by how much:

millions of barrels per day

Nov. 19Dec. 17

Bank of Ireland1.0DMC

Barclays CapitAl DMC

BNP Paribas-DMC

Centre for Global Energy Studies-DMC

Deutsche Bank-DMC

GFT Global Markets1.0 - 1.5DMC

HSH - Nordbank-1.0 - 1.5

J.P.Morgan1.0DMC

Landesbank1.01.0

Merrill Lynch0.51.0

MF Global 1.0DMC

PetromatrixDMCDMC

Societe Generale-1.0

Sucden1.5DMC

UBS-DMC

DMC  any OPEC cut will depend on market conditions

Following are individual OPEC members’ target oil output quotas following its decision on Oct. 24 to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to just over 27.3 million bpd.

Iraq is not subject to the group’s output targets.

Figures are in barrels per day:

CountryTargetActualApparent

OutputOutputover/(under)

production

in Oct.*

Algeria1.2861.400.114

Angola1.8011.910.109

Ecuador0.4930.500.007

Iran3.6183.950.332

Kuwait2.3992.600.201

Libya1.6231.710.087

Nigeria2.0501.93(0.120)

Qatar0.7850.860.075

Saudi Arabia8.4779.400.923

UAE2.4332.500.067

Venezuela2.3412.360.019

TOTAL OPEC 1127.30629.121.814

Iraq-2.25-based on Reuters survey of oil companies’ estimates on Nov. 3

OPEC quotas exclude condensate and natural gas liquids and apply to supply rather than wellhead output, defined to exclude movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti data includes Neutral Zone. Saudi data excludes oil produced for Bahrain. Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil.