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Oil supply not only factor causing price changes: study
(WAM)

3 May 2004
ABU DHABI - Supply should not be seen as the only factor that causes price changes and it is unfair to expect Opec to stabilise the oil market by itself, according to a study by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).

The study, conducted by Ali Obaid Al Yabhouni, head of marketing research and analysis department, said that other factors that affect oil price volatility should also be considered.

These factors can be divided into two categories, namely factors outside the oil exporter's control and factors under the oil exporter’s control.

The former include the economic environment, the weather and seasonability of demand, consuming government taxation policies and whether the market is regulated or free.

Additionally, oil supply is also affected by the location of the supply in relation to the oil demand (regional imbalances), the production cost which may be high in offshore deep and rough water or low where oil is at shallow depth onshore with highly productive wells, political sanctions and embargoes which are imposed by the United Nations or individual government, inventory policies of governments such as strategic oil reserves and adequate import cover, and policies of companies.

The study went further to note that oil prices can be affected by transactions on the future and forward markets which may be driven by technical trading, speculations, trading squeezes and psychological sentiments and can be separated from the underlying fundamentals of the physical oil markets.

The study concluded that the best possibility of achieving more oil price stability is through cooperation between oil importers and exporters.

Although Opec has invited some-Opec producers to coordinate the volume of crude oil in the market, oil importing and exporting governments need to change current policies to take true account of each other's interests, said the study.

The study further noted that the impending meeting of the International Energy Forum to be held in May 22nd in Amsterdam, Netherlands could provide an excellent arena to constructively address relevant matters on the issue.

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