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Arabian Gulf IPOs: lessons and prospects
BY MATEIN KHALID

15 February 2004
DUBAI - The 33fold oversubscription of the recent Amlak Finance IPO is a testament to the region's insatiable demand for profitable, listed companies with unique and vivid local investment themes. Mortgage finance is a mature, low growth competitive business in the West but the introduction of this concept by Emaar Properties in New Dubai's real estate development bonanza obviously captured the imagination of 17,000 investors in the UAE.

The lessons of the Amlak IPO? One, the UAE is a natural magnet for intra-AGCC capital flows. Some of the biggest bids for Amlak originated from Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Two, the IPO process was lead managed by a specialist investment bank dedicated to the Gulf capital markets (Shuaa Capital). UAE bankers who wish to ride the regional investment banking wave should build a pan-AGCC placement network if they wish to win IPO mandates. Three, a successful, high profile IPO can build a country's equity culture while a bubble, rollercoaster IPO can kill it. The parabolic ascent of Emaar after its IPO from Dh10 to Dh160 and what happened subsequently did incalculable damage to the evolution of the UAE capital markets. The regulatory, market surveillance and listing infrastructure of the DFM is now in place ,which it was not during the Emaar IPO. The hammours, the proverbial big fish of the share bazaar, can no longer manipulate new issues to the detriment of the small investor. Like Mrs Thatcher's  British Telecom ,the Amlak IPO can help create a equity culture in the UAE.

Four, timing is critical in Gulf IPOs. When the local OTC share market collapsed in 1998, an Ice Age descended on UAE new issue flotation. By the same token, booming secondary markets in the AGCC bourse stimulate investor demand for new issues. Amlak is a perfect example of the nexus between a bull wave and IPO timing. Five, the UAE stock market is a barometer of  regional investor confidence in the most dynamic and cosmopolitan economy in the Arab world. It is imperative that only the bluest of blue chip promoters are allowed to list on the DFM and the ADSM. Unscrupulous promoters can kill an entire new issue market, as happened in Bombay in 1996 and  after the Internet mania on Wall Street.

New issues will be a a major theme in the Gulf stock markets in the decade ahead. IPOs  signal valuation benchmarks in the financial markets. They allow companies to raise expansion funds and provide high powered currency for mergers and acquisitions. They offer an exit avenue for promoters, private equity and venture capital funds. They enable a family owned conglomerate to raise cash for a founders heirs and governments to cut public debt or win electoral brownie points. A high profile IPO is symbolic of international investor confidence in a country's  economy. This was the lesson of the Saudi Telecom and Qatar Industries new issues. The Saudi Telecom IPO doubled in value even though it was a monster $3 billion deal that hit the market on the eve of the Iraq invasion. The next big regional IPO money making opportunity will be Saudi Arabia's National Commercial Bank, the biggest bank in the kingdom. After a state bailout, the Saudi government acquired a 80 per cent stake from the Bin Mahfouz clan. NCB has been strategically restructured as prelude to a potential IPO. The only unlisted Saudi bank has  a new CEO new IT systems credit risk models and management culture. I believe NCB is worth multiples of what it was valued when Riyadh bought out the controlling stake of Shaikh Khalid bin Mahfouz. The IPO of the bank, if open to foreign investors, would be the ideal Arab and international vote of confidence in the new Saudi Arabia envisaged by Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz.


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