“The direct contribution of the concern-driven rise in oil prices to the economic slowdown in 2004 has been very small,” the group said in its monthly oil market report. US oil futures set a new high if $47.01 a barrel yesterday a new record in the 21-year history of the New York Mercantile Exchange contract.

Prices are up nearly $10 a barrel since the end of June and record peaks have been set in all but one of the last 14 Nymex trading sessions. ”Going forward much will depend on how long the price of the Opec reference basket remains above $35 a barrel.” it said. The basket price increased 20 per cent, from $30.3 a barrel to $36.3 a barrel between January and July this year, it said. Opec’s basket of crudes was last valued at $41.75. “A recent study suggests that if such a hike were to be maintained for two years, then it may cut economic growth in  US and Europe by about 0.2 per cent in 2004,” it said.